Northwestern State @ Baylor
College basketball 2026-27 · Southland vs Big 12 · · Foster Pavilion
A probability, not a promise. A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Baylor can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Baylor about 6.2 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Baylor win 4,435 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Baylor 96th (+5.1), Northwestern State 313th (-10.4) of 365.
- Baylor's shooting (53.4% eFG%, 84th in Division I) meets a Northwestern State defense that ranks 270th.
- Baylor's offense (116.0 points per 100 possessions, 46th in Division I) meets a Northwestern State defense that ranks 260th.
Disadvantages Why Baylor may not
- Upset odds: Northwestern State win 565 of 5,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Baylor lose by 1 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Northwestern State 49th (0.30), Baylor 195th (0.25) of 365.
- Weak spot: Baylor rank 243rd of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (111.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAY -13 |
| Total points | n/a | 145.3 |
| Win chance | NWST n/a · BAY n/a | NWST 11% · BAY 89% |
| Fair moneyline | NWST +783 · BAY -783 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Baylor 81, Northwestern State 68.
- 80% of simulations land between Northwestern State by 1 and Baylor by 27.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
NWST Northwestern State
Every regular played last game.
BAY Baylor
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| NWST | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -10.4 313 | Net rating | +5.1 96 |
| 101.0 315 | Offensive rating | 116.0 46 |
| 111.4 260 | Defensive rating | 111.0 243 |
| -0.2 213 | Strength of schedule | +1.6 24 |
| 48.6% 300 | Effective FG% | 53.4% 84 |
| 53.0% 270 | Opponent eFG% | 52.4% 237 |
| 18.3 288 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 154 |
| 26.1% 320 | Offensive rebound % | 36.9% 18 |
| 33.2% 217 | 3-point % | 33.9% 178 |
| 65.4 333 | Pace | 69.3 160 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-02 | 2023-24 | Northwestern State 40 @ Baylor 91 | BAY |
| 2022-12-20 | 2022-23 | Northwestern State 48 @ Baylor 58 | BAY |
| 2021-12-28 | 2021-22 | Northwestern State 68 @ Baylor 104 | BAY |
| 2015-12-08 | 2015-16 | Northwestern State 62 @ Baylor 75 | BAY |
| 2013-12-18 | 2013-14 | Northwestern State 84 @ Baylor 91 | BAY |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works