Abilene Christian @ Colorado
College basketball 2026-27 · UAC vs Big 12 · · CU Events Center
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Colorado can win
- Colorado's shooting (52.9% eFG%, 108th in Division I) meets a Abilene Christian defense that ranks 352nd.
- Simulation: Colorado win 3,570 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Colorado play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Colorado 46th (14.6), Abilene Christian 355th (20.8) of 365.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Colorado 169th (+0.6), Abilene Christian 294th (-8.6) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Colorado may not
- Upset odds: Abilene Christian win 1,430 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Abilene Christian 2nd (23.4), Colorado 266th (15.3) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Colorado lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Colorado rank 313th of 365 in points allowed per game (79.8).
- Weak spot: Colorado rank 275th of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (112.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | COLO -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 151.7 |
| Win chance | ACU n/a · COLO n/a | ACU 29% · COLO 71% |
| Fair moneyline | ACU +250 · COLO -250 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Colorado 79, Abilene Christian 73.
- 80% of simulations land between Abilene Christian by 8 and Colorado by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
ACU Abilene Christian
Every regular played last game.
COLO Colorado
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| ACU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.6 294 | Net rating | +0.6 169 |
| 98.1 339 | Offensive rating | 112.9 83 |
| 106.7 125 | Defensive rating | 112.4 275 |
| +0.1 151 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 58 |
| 47.5% 325 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 108 |
| 56.5% 352 | Opponent eFG% | 52.6% 243 |
| 20.8 355 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.6 46 |
| 31.0% 164 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 235 |
| 31.0% 318 | 3-point % | 35.2% 104 |
| 69.2 166 | Pace | 71.0 76 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works