Memphis vs Iowa State
College basketball 2026-27 · American vs Big 12 · · Sanford Pentagon
A probability, not a promise. A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Iowa State can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Iowa State about 7.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Iowa State win 4,475 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to Iowa State in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Iowa State 4th (+23.9), Memphis 213th (-2.0) of 365.
- Three-point shooting: Iowa State 12th (38.3%), Memphis 302nd (31.6%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Iowa State may not
- Upset odds: Memphis win 525 of 5,000 simulations (10%). A 90% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Iowa State lose by 1 or more.
- Weak spot: Iowa State rank 243rd of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.23).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ISU -13.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 148.9 |
| Win chance | MEM n/a · ISU n/a | MEM 10% · ISU 90% |
| Fair moneyline | MEM +849 · ISU -849 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Iowa State 82, Memphis 68.
- 80% of simulations land between Memphis by 1 and Iowa State by 28.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MEM Memphis
Every regular played last game.
ISU Iowa State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MEM | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -2.0 213 | Net rating | +23.9 4 |
| 104.6 258 | Offensive rating | 119.7 15 |
| 106.6 120 | Defensive rating | 95.8 4 |
| +0.7 79 | Strength of schedule | +1.1 50 |
| 48.7% 297 | Effective FG% | 56.2% 20 |
| 48.7% 55 | Opponent eFG% | 49.8% 92 |
| 18.9 316 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 59 |
| 35.3% 41 | Offensive rebound % | 35.2% 45 |
| 31.6% 302 | 3-point % | 38.3% 12 |
| 71.9 37 | Pace | 68.5 203 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-26 | 2021-22 | Iowa State 78 @ Memphis 59 (neutral) | ISU |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works