Fordham @ Kansas
College basketball 2026-27 · Atlantic 10 vs Big 12 · · Allen Fieldhouse
A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Kansas can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Kansas about 5.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Kansas win 4,375 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Kansas play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Kansas 62nd (+8.8), Fordham 145th (+1.9) of 365.
- Three-point shooting: Kansas 139th (34.6%), Fordham 355th (28.9%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Kansas may not
- Upset odds: Fordham win 625 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Fordham 135th (17.2), Kansas 338th (13.8) of 365.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Fordham 64th (34.1%), Kansas 227th (29.2%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Kansas lose by 2 or more.
- Weak spot: Kansas rank 338th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KU -12.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 141.9 |
| Win chance | FOR n/a · KU n/a | FOR 12% · KU 88% |
| Fair moneyline | FOR +703 · KU -703 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kansas 81, Fordham 68.
- 80% of simulations land between Fordham by 2 and Kansas by 26.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
FOR Fordham
Every regular played last game.
KU Kansas
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| FOR | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +1.9 145 | Net rating | +8.8 62 |
| 104.2 266 | Offensive rating | 109.2 155 |
| 102.4 49 | Defensive rating | 100.3 27 |
| -0.1 182 | Strength of schedule | +2.3 5 |
| 48.6% 299 | Effective FG% | 51.2% 186 |
| 49.9% 95 | Opponent eFG% | 45.0% 2 |
| 17.2 218 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 109 |
| 34.1% 64 | Offensive rebound % | 29.2% 227 |
| 28.9% 355 | 3-point % | 34.6% 139 |
| 64.8 348 | Pace | 68.8 192 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works