Akron @ Louisiana
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Cajundome
A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Akron can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Akron about 13.2 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Akron 17th (+16.0), Louisiana 317th (-10.9) of 365.
- Simulation: Akron win 4,375 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to Akron in our ratings.
- Akron's shooting (58.2% eFG%, 9th in Division I) meets a Louisiana defense that ranks 247th.
Disadvantages Why Akron may not
- Home court: Louisiana play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Upset odds: Louisiana win 625 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Akron lose by 2 or more.
- Weak spot: Akron rank 295th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
- Weak spot: Akron rank 280th of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | AKR -12.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 147.6 |
| Win chance | AKR n/a · UL n/a | AKR 88% · UL 12% |
| Fair moneyline | AKR -700 · UL +700 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Louisiana 69, Akron 81.
- 80% of simulations land between Akron by 26 and Louisiana by 2.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
AKR Akron
Every regular played last game.
UL Louisiana
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| AKR | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +16.0 17 | Net rating | -10.9 317 |
| 121.6 7 | Offensive rating | 99.3 332 |
| 105.5 97 | Defensive rating | 110.2 225 |
| -0.5 280 | Strength of schedule | -0.3 229 |
| 58.2% 9 | Effective FG% | 47.1% 333 |
| 51.2% 173 | Opponent eFG% | 52.6% 247 |
| 15.5 102 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.8 185 |
| 33.4% 78 | Offensive rebound % | 28.3% 251 |
| 38.2% 15 | 3-point % | 33.6% 188 |
| 71.1 70 | Pace | 64.1 358 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works