Bowling Green @ Georgia State
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · GSU Convocation Center
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bowling Green can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Bowling Green about 6.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Bowling Green 87th (+5.7), Georgia State 309th (-10.1) of 365.
- Simulation: Bowling Green win 3,125 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Bowling Green in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bowling Green 86th (+4.0), Georgia State 312th (-7.0) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Bowling Green may not
- Home court: Georgia State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Upset odds: Georgia State win 1,875 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Bowling Green lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bowling Green rank 266th of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.4).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Georgia State 58th (0.29), Bowling Green 135th (0.27) of 365.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BGSU -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 148.2 |
| Win chance | BGSU n/a · GAST n/a | BGSU 62% · GAST 38% |
| Fair moneyline | BGSU -167 · GAST +167 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Georgia State 73, Bowling Green 77.
- 80% of simulations land between Bowling Green by 18 and Georgia State by 10.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
BGSU Bowling Green
Every regular played last game.
GAST Georgia State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| BGSU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +5.7 87 | Net rating | -10.1 309 |
| 108.9 163 | Offensive rating | 99.1 334 |
| 103.2 60 | Defensive rating | 109.2 201 |
| -0.4 266 | Strength of schedule | -0.3 249 |
| 51.8% 153 | Effective FG% | 44.2% 361 |
| 51.0% 163 | Opponent eFG% | 50.6% 135 |
| 16.5 166 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.9 133 |
| 28.7% 244 | Offensive rebound % | 27.7% 278 |
| 34.4% 148 | 3-point % | 30.6% 328 |
| 70.5 95 | Pace | 69.1 175 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works