Buffalo @ Marshall
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Cam Henderson Center
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Marshall can win
- Marshall's shooting (54.8% eFG%, 42nd in Division I) meets a Buffalo defense that ranks 333rd.
- Simulation: Marshall win 3,810 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Marshall's offense (113.8 points per 100 possessions, 73rd in Division I) meets a Buffalo defense that ranks 289th.
- Home court: Marshall play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Marshall about 2.1 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Marshall may not
- Buffalo's offense (113.7 points per 100 possessions, 75th in Division I) meets a Marshall defense that ranks 264th.
- Buffalo's shooting (55.4% eFG%, 30th in Division I) meets a Marshall defense that ranks 118th.
- Upset odds: Buffalo win 1,190 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Buffalo 60th (0.29), Marshall 313th (0.21) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Marshall lose by 6 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MRSH -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 156.3 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · MRSH n/a | BUF 24% · MRSH 76% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +320 · MRSH -320 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Marshall 82, Buffalo 74.
- 80% of simulations land between Buffalo by 6 and Marshall by 21.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
BUF Buffalo
Every regular played last game.
MRSH Marshall
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| BUF | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +0.7 168 | Net rating | +2.2 139 |
| 113.7 75 | Offensive rating | 113.8 73 |
| 113.0 289 | Defensive rating | 111.6 264 |
| -0.3 235 | Strength of schedule | +0.1 141 |
| 55.4% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.8% 42 |
| 55.1% 333 | Opponent eFG% | 50.3% 118 |
| 16.2 151 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.6 171 |
| 27.1% 290 | Offensive rebound % | 31.9% 127 |
| 37.9% 20 | 3-point % | 36.8% 34 |
| 68.2 218 | Pace | 70.7 86 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works