Central Michigan @ UL Monroe
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Fant-Ewing Coliseum
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Central Michigan can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Central Michigan about 6.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Central Michigan's shooting (51.8% eFG%, 158th in Division I) meets a UL Monroe defense that ranks 358th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Central Michigan in our ratings.
- Simulation: Central Michigan win 2,935 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Central Michigan's offense (104.9 points per 100 possessions, 251st in Division I) meets a UL Monroe defense that ranks 357th.
Disadvantages Why Central Michigan may not
- Home court: UL Monroe play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Upset odds: UL Monroe win 2,065 of 5,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Central Michigan lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): UL Monroe 84th (0.28), Central Michigan 297th (0.22) of 365.
- Weak spot: Central Michigan rank 322nd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (65.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CMU -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 153 |
| Win chance | CMU n/a · ULM n/a | CMU 59% · ULM 41% |
| Fair moneyline | CMU -142 · ULM +142 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: UL Monroe 75, Central Michigan 78.
- 80% of simulations land between Central Michigan by 17 and UL Monroe by 12.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
CMU Central Michigan
Every regular played last game.
ULM UL Monroe
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| CMU | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.8 299 | Net rating | -19.2 355 |
| 104.9 251 | Offensive rating | 100.6 321 |
| 113.7 304 | Defensive rating | 119.7 357 |
| -0.3 233 | Strength of schedule | -0.5 290 |
| 51.8% 158 | Effective FG% | 47.8% 315 |
| 54.0% 299 | Opponent eFG% | 57.1% 358 |
| 18.1 276 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.9 199 |
| 29.2% 230 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 337 |
| 33.9% 180 | 3-point % | 32.2% 269 |
| 68.3 211 | Pace | 71.3 58 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-11 | 2023-24 | UL Monroe 74 @ Central Michigan 64 | ULM |
Your pick
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What if?
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works