Western Michigan @ Old Dominion
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Chartway Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Old Dominion can win
- Simulation: Old Dominion win 3,755 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Old Dominion play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Old Dominion's shooting (50.7% eFG%, 203rd in Division I) meets a Western Michigan defense that ranks 310th.
- Old Dominion's offense (106.9 points per 100 possessions, 208th in Division I) meets a Western Michigan defense that ranks 331st.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Old Dominion about 1.4 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Old Dominion may not
- Upset odds: Western Michigan win 1,245 of 5,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Strength of schedule: Western Michigan 130th (+0.2), Old Dominion 281st (-0.5) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Old Dominion lose by 7 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Western Michigan 177th (30.5%), Old Dominion 322nd (26.0%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Old Dominion rank 322nd of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (14.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ODU -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 154.1 |
| Win chance | WMU n/a · ODU n/a | WMU 25% · ODU 75% |
| Fair moneyline | WMU +301 · ODU -301 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Old Dominion 81, Western Michigan 73.
- 80% of simulations land between Western Michigan by 7 and Old Dominion by 21.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
WMU Western Michigan
Every regular played last game.
ODU Old Dominion
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| WMU | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.9 302 | Net rating | -4.2 239 |
| 106.6 212 | Offensive rating | 106.9 208 |
| 115.5 331 | Defensive rating | 111.1 248 |
| +0.2 130 | Strength of schedule | -0.5 281 |
| 49.9% 241 | Effective FG% | 50.7% 203 |
| 54.4% 310 | Opponent eFG% | 50.8% 145 |
| 16.9 198 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 100 |
| 30.5% 177 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 322 |
| 35.3% 95 | 3-point % | 36.0% 60 |
| 69.3 159 | Pace | 70.8 81 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works