Eastern Michigan @ Coastal Carolina
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · The HTC Center
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Coastal Carolina can win
- Simulation: Coastal Carolina win 3,540 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Coastal Carolina play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Coastal Carolina 82nd (15.2), Eastern Michigan 229th (17.4) of 365.
- Strength: Coastal Carolina rank 18th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (46.8%).
- Strength: Coastal Carolina rank 52nd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.4%).
Disadvantages Why Coastal Carolina may not
- Upset odds: Eastern Michigan win 1,460 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Coastal Carolina lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Coastal Carolina rank 363rd of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.3).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Eastern Michigan 243rd (15.6), Coastal Carolina 363rd (12.3) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: Eastern Michigan 185th (-0.1), Coastal Carolina 273rd (-0.5) of 365.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CCU -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 145.6 |
| Win chance | EMU n/a · CCU n/a | EMU 29% · CCU 71% |
| Fair moneyline | EMU +243 · CCU -243 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Coastal Carolina 78, Eastern Michigan 72.
- 80% of simulations land between Eastern Michigan by 8 and Coastal Carolina by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
EMU Eastern Michigan
Every regular played last game.
CCU Coastal Carolina
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| EMU | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -6.1 264 | Net rating | -2.5 220 |
| 101.9 306 | Offensive rating | 102.7 293 |
| 108.0 163 | Defensive rating | 105.2 91 |
| -0.1 185 | Strength of schedule | -0.5 273 |
| 49.6% 264 | Effective FG% | 47.9% 313 |
| 50.3% 115 | Opponent eFG% | 46.8% 18 |
| 17.4 229 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 82 |
| 27.8% 273 | Offensive rebound % | 26.9% 295 |
| 32.4% 257 | 3-point % | 33.5% 195 |
| 68.9 189 | Pace | 69.9 120 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works