Toledo @ Arkansas State
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · First National Bank Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Arkansas State can win
- Simulation: Arkansas State win 3,530 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Arkansas State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Arkansas State's shooting (51.7% eFG%, 164th in Division I) meets a Toledo defense that ranks 308th.
- Arkansas State's offense (111.4 points per 100 possessions, 112th in Division I) meets a Toledo defense that ranks 261st.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Arkansas State 36th (73.0%), Toledo 312th (66.3%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Arkansas State may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Toledo 51st (14.7), Arkansas State 344th (19.8) of 365.
- Upset odds: Toledo win 1,470 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Toledo 29th (37.0%), Arkansas State 239th (32.9%) of 365.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Toledo 102nd (17.9), Arkansas State 298th (14.9) of 365.
- Toledo's shooting (54.5% eFG%, 50th in Division I) meets a Arkansas State defense that ranks 117th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ARST -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 159.4 |
| Win chance | TOL n/a · ARST n/a | TOL 29% · ARST 71% |
| Fair moneyline | TOL +240 · ARST -240 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Arkansas State 83, Toledo 77.
- 80% of simulations land between Toledo by 8 and Arkansas State by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
TOL Toledo
Every regular played last game.
ARST Arkansas State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| TOL | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +3.4 119 | Net rating | +5.1 94 |
| 114.9 62 | Offensive rating | 111.4 112 |
| 111.5 261 | Defensive rating | 106.3 110 |
| +0.3 121 | Strength of schedule | -0.2 218 |
| 54.5% 50 | Effective FG% | 51.7% 164 |
| 54.3% 308 | Opponent eFG% | 50.3% 117 |
| 14.7 51 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.8 344 |
| 29.5% 220 | Offensive rebound % | 38.2% 6 |
| 37.0% 29 | 3-point % | 32.9% 239 |
| 69.5 145 | Pace | 73.4 16 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-12-13 | 2014-15 | Arkansas State 65 @ Toledo 73 | TOL |
| 2013-12-17 | 2013-14 | Toledo 78 @ Arkansas State 65 | TOL |
Your pick
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What if?
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works