Massachusetts @ Troy
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Trojan Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Troy can win
- Simulation: Troy win 3,730 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Troy play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Troy's shooting (51.5% eFG%, 171st in Division I) meets a Massachusetts defense that ranks 262nd.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Troy about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
- Troy's offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 119th in Division I) meets a Massachusetts defense that ranks 179th.
Disadvantages Why Troy may not
- Upset odds: Massachusetts win 1,270 of 5,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Massachusetts 20th (73.9%), Troy 243rd (68.3%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Troy lose by 7 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Massachusetts 100th (35.2%), Troy 228th (33.0%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Troy rank 243rd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (68.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TROY -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 152.4 |
| Win chance | MASS n/a · TROY n/a | MASS 25% · TROY 75% |
| Fair moneyline | MASS +294 · TROY -294 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Troy 80, Massachusetts 73.
- 80% of simulations land between Massachusetts by 7 and Troy by 21.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MASS Massachusetts
Every regular played last game.
TROY Troy
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MASS | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +1.5 151 | Net rating | +4.0 108 |
| 109.9 135 | Offensive rating | 111.1 119 |
| 108.4 179 | Defensive rating | 107.1 134 |
| -0.2 199 | Strength of schedule | -0.1 193 |
| 53.1% 99 | Effective FG% | 51.5% 171 |
| 52.9% 262 | Opponent eFG% | 50.2% 111 |
| 17.8 263 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.3 224 |
| 33.3% 80 | Offensive rebound % | 34.6% 58 |
| 35.2% 100 | 3-point % | 33.0% 228 |
| 72.7 21 | Pace | 69.6 140 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works