Ohio @ South Alabama
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Mitchell Center
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why South Alabama can win
- Home court: South Alabama play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Simulation: South Alabama win 3,125 of 5,000 simulated games.
- South Alabama's shooting (52.6% eFG%, 120th in Division I) meets a Ohio defense that ranks 269th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): South Alabama 126th (+2.9), Ohio 247th (-4.7) of 365.
- South Alabama's offense (109.2 points per 100 possessions, 153rd in Division I) meets a Ohio defense that ranks 284th.
Disadvantages Why South Alabama may not
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Ohio about 2.5 points stronger over recent games.
- Upset odds: Ohio win 1,875 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Strength of schedule: Ohio 146th (+0.1), South Alabama 309th (-0.7) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations South Alabama lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: South Alabama rank 340th of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (25.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | USA -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 150.6 |
| Win chance | OHIO n/a · USA n/a | OHIO 38% · USA 62% |
| Fair moneyline | OHIO +167 · USA -167 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: South Alabama 77, Ohio 74.
- 80% of simulations land between Ohio by 11 and South Alabama by 18.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
OHIO Ohio
Every regular played last game.
USA South Alabama
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| OHIO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -4.7 247 | Net rating | +2.9 126 |
| 108.1 182 | Offensive rating | 109.2 153 |
| 112.7 284 | Defensive rating | 106.3 112 |
| +0.1 146 | Strength of schedule | -0.7 309 |
| 50.9% 197 | Effective FG% | 52.6% 120 |
| 53.0% 269 | Opponent eFG% | 50.1% 105 |
| 15.5 101 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.0 6 |
| 28.4% 248 | Offensive rebound % | 25.0% 340 |
| 30.1% 340 | 3-point % | 34.5% 146 |
| 71.0 78 | Pace | 67.1 276 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works