Ball State @ Georgia Southern
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Georgia Southern can win
- Simulation: Georgia Southern win 3,675 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Georgia Southern play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Georgia Southern 190th (-0.6), Ball State 289th (-8.1) of 365.
- Georgia Southern's shooting (51.4% eFG%, 176th in Division I) meets a Ball State defense that ranks 253rd.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Georgia Southern about 0.9 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Georgia Southern may not
- Upset odds: Ball State win 1,325 of 5,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Georgia Southern lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Georgia Southern rank 341st of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (64.8%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Ball State 204th (69.0%), Georgia Southern 341st (64.8%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Georgia Southern rank 330th of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GASO -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 149.7 |
| Win chance | BALL n/a · GASO n/a | BALL 26% · GASO 74% |
| Fair moneyline | BALL +277 · GASO -277 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Georgia Southern 79, Ball State 71.
- 80% of simulations land between Ball State by 7 and Georgia Southern by 21.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
BALL Ball State
Every regular played last game.
GASO Georgia Southern
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| BALL | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.1 289 | Net rating | -0.6 190 |
| 100.3 325 | Offensive rating | 111.2 116 |
| 108.3 176 | Defensive rating | 111.9 269 |
| -0.8 318 | Strength of schedule | -0.8 330 |
| 47.0% 335 | Effective FG% | 51.4% 176 |
| 52.7% 253 | Opponent eFG% | 52.3% 230 |
| 16.2 152 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.6 48 |
| 27.1% 289 | Offensive rebound % | 28.8% 238 |
| 31.4% 311 | 3-point % | 33.4% 206 |
| 65.9 316 | Pace | 71.8 42 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-21 | 2022-23 | Georgia Southern 54 @ Ball State 58 | BALL |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-22 | Ball State 71 @ Georgia Southern 82 | GASO |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works