NJIT @ Dayton
College basketball 2026-27 · America East vs Atlantic 10 · · UD Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 91% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Dayton can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Dayton about 7.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Dayton win 4,560 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Dayton 77th (+7.1), NJIT 320th (-11.0) of 365.
- Home court: Dayton play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Dayton in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Dayton may not
- Upset odds: NJIT win 440 of 5,000 simulations (9%). A 91% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Weak spot: Dayton rank 297th of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (26.9%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAY -14.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 140.8 |
| Win chance | NJIT n/a · DAY n/a | NJIT 9% · DAY 91% |
| Fair moneyline | NJIT +1034 · DAY -1034 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Dayton 82, NJIT 67.
- 80% of simulations land between Dayton by 1 and Dayton by 29.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
NJIT NJIT
Every regular played last game.
DAY Dayton
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| NJIT | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -11.0 320 | Net rating | +7.1 77 |
| 97.4 342 | Offensive rating | 108.5 172 |
| 108.5 180 | Defensive rating | 101.5 37 |
| -0.4 252 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 66 |
| 46.7% 341 | Effective FG% | 51.6% 168 |
| 50.0% 99 | Opponent eFG% | 51.0% 164 |
| 17.1 210 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.9 195 |
| 26.2% 315 | Offensive rebound % | 26.9% 297 |
| 30.4% 335 | 3-point % | 33.9% 181 |
| 67.9 234 | Pace | 68.3 212 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works