The Citadel @ Loyola Chicago
College basketball 2026-27 · SoCon vs Atlantic 10 · · Gentile Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Loyola Chicago can win
- Simulation: Loyola Chicago win 3,650 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Loyola Chicago play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Loyola Chicago's shooting (49.8% eFG%, 246th in Division I) meets a The Citadel defense that ranks 361st.
- Strength of schedule: Loyola Chicago 104th (+0.4), The Citadel 282nd (-0.5) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Loyola Chicago about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Loyola Chicago may not
- Upset odds: The Citadel win 1,350 of 5,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): The Citadel 157th (16.3), Loyola Chicago 342nd (19.8) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Loyola Chicago lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Loyola Chicago rank 356th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.9).
- Weak spot: Loyola Chicago rank 342nd of 365 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (19.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LUC -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 143.4 |
| Win chance | CIT n/a · LUC n/a | CIT 27% · LUC 73% |
| Fair moneyline | CIT +270 · LUC -270 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Loyola Chicago 78, The Citadel 72.
- 80% of simulations land between The Citadel by 7 and Loyola Chicago by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
CIT The Citadel
Every regular played last game.
LUC Loyola Chicago
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| CIT | LUC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -16.0 346 | Net rating | -13.6 335 |
| 103.4 281 | Offensive rating | 101.0 314 |
| 119.4 356 | Defensive rating | 114.6 318 |
| -0.5 282 | Strength of schedule | +0.4 104 |
| 49.5% 265 | Effective FG% | 49.8% 246 |
| 57.5% 361 | Opponent eFG% | 52.0% 214 |
| 16.3 157 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.8 342 |
| 27.9% 270 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 179 |
| 32.0% 282 | 3-point % | 31.7% 295 |
| 66.1 312 | Pace | 66.1 308 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works