UNC Asheville @ Richmond
College basketball 2026-27 · Big South vs Atlantic 10 · · Robins Center
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Richmond can win
- Simulation: Richmond win 3,370 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Richmond play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Richmond 127th (+2.9), UNC Asheville 230th (-3.3) of 365.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Richmond 33rd (14.3), UNC Asheville 231st (17.4) of 365.
- Richmond's offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 118th in Division I) meets a UNC Asheville defense that ranks 196th.
Disadvantages Why Richmond may not
- Upset odds: UNC Asheville win 1,630 of 5,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Richmond lose by 9 or more.
- Strength of schedule: UNC Asheville 93rd (+0.5), Richmond 214th (-0.2) of 365.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): UNC Asheville 211th (29.8%), Richmond 339th (25.0%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Richmond rank 339th of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (25.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | RICH -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 146.8 |
| Win chance | UNCA n/a · RICH n/a | UNCA 33% · RICH 67% |
| Fair moneyline | UNCA +207 · RICH -207 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Richmond 78, UNC Asheville 73.
- 80% of simulations land between UNC Asheville by 9 and Richmond by 18.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
UNCA UNC Asheville
Every regular played last game.
RICH Richmond
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| UNCA | RICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -3.3 230 | Net rating | +2.9 127 |
| 105.8 233 | Offensive rating | 111.2 118 |
| 109.1 196 | Defensive rating | 108.4 177 |
| +0.5 93 | Strength of schedule | -0.2 214 |
| 51.0% 194 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 115 |
| 51.3% 175 | Opponent eFG% | 52.0% 216 |
| 17.4 231 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 33 |
| 29.8% 211 | Offensive rebound % | 25.0% 339 |
| 35.1% 110 | 3-point % | 37.1% 28 |
| 68.0 229 | Pace | 68.8 193 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works