Youngstown State @ St. Bonaventure
College basketball 2026-27 · Horizon vs Atlantic 10 · · Reilly Center
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why St. Bonaventure can win
- Simulation: St. Bonaventure win 3,220 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: St. Bonaventure play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- St. Bonaventure's shooting (52.4% eFG%, 129th in Division I) meets a Youngstown State defense that ranks 228th.
- St. Bonaventure's offense (111.9 points per 100 possessions, 103rd in Division I) meets a Youngstown State defense that ranks 186th.
- Three-point shooting: St. Bonaventure 22nd (37.4%), Youngstown State 183rd (33.8%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why St. Bonaventure may not
- Youngstown State's shooting (53.7% eFG%, 76th in Division I) meets a St. Bonaventure defense that ranks 278th.
- Upset odds: Youngstown State win 1,780 of 5,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Youngstown State about 1.1 points stronger over recent games.
- Youngstown State's offense (109.0 points per 100 possessions, 160th in Division I) meets a St. Bonaventure defense that ranks 237th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations St. Bonaventure lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SBU -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 149.4 |
| Win chance | YSU n/a · SBU n/a | YSU 36% · SBU 64% |
| Fair moneyline | YSU +181 · SBU -181 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: St. Bonaventure 77, Youngstown State 73.
- 80% of simulations land between Youngstown State by 10 and St. Bonaventure by 18.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
YSU Youngstown State
Every regular played last game.
SBU St. Bonaventure
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| YSU | SBU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +0.3 171 | Net rating | +1.1 160 |
| 109.0 160 | Offensive rating | 111.9 103 |
| 108.7 186 | Defensive rating | 110.9 237 |
| -0.3 243 | Strength of schedule | +0.2 123 |
| 53.7% 76 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 129 |
| 52.3% 228 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 278 |
| 18.8 312 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.8 191 |
| 30.4% 182 | Offensive rebound % | 34.5% 60 |
| 33.8% 183 | 3-point % | 37.4% 22 |
| 68.9 187 | Pace | 68.0 227 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | Youngstown State 80 @ St. Bonaventure 84 | SBU |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works