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AZMango
UNH

New Hampshire @ Brown

College basketball 2026-27 · America East vs Ivy League · · Pizzitola Sports Center

BRWN
Our pick
BRWNBrown Bears
68% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Brown can win

  1. Simulation: Brown win 3,420 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Home court: Brown play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Brown 62nd (18.7), New Hampshire 230th (15.8) of 365.
  4. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Brown 236th (29.0%), New Hampshire 328th (25.7%) of 365.
  5. Strength: Brown rank 62nd of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (18.7).

Disadvantages Why Brown may not

  1. Upset odds: New Hampshire win 1,580 of 5,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): New Hampshire 168th (16.5), Brown 336th (19.5) of 365.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Brown lose by 9 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Brown rank 352nd of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
  5. Weak spot: Brown rank 337th of 365 in three-point shooting (30.3%).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetBRWN -5.1
Total pointsn/a145
Win chanceUNH n/a · BRWN n/aUNH 32% · BRWN 68%
Fair moneylineUNH +217 · BRWN -217

No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Brown 78, New Hampshire 73.
  • 80% of simulations land between New Hampshire by 9 and Brown by 19.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Still out?

College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

UNH New Hampshire

Every regular played last game.

BRWN Brown

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Side by side

UNHBRWN
0-0Record0-0
-14.1 338Net rating-7.7 282
96.7 346Offensive rating98.8 336
110.8 236Defensive rating106.5 119
-0.1 174Strength of schedule-0.3 230
46.7% 343Effective FG%48.6% 298
53.4% 282Opponent eFG%51.3% 176
16.5 168Turnovers per 10019.5 336
25.7% 328Offensive rebound %29.0% 236
30.5% 3323-point %30.3% 337
68.9 185Pace68.0 228

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-11-262025-26Brown 59 @ New Hampshire 47BRWN
2024-11-152024-25New Hampshire 58 @ Brown 76BRWN
2023-11-142023-24Brown 64 @ New Hampshire 82UNH
2022-12-212022-23New Hampshire 51 @ Brown 67BRWN
2015-11-242015-16New Hampshire 88 @ Brown 77UNH

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).

32%New Hampshire
68%Brown

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)