Air Force @ Wright State
College basketball 2026-27 · Mountain West vs Horizon · · Nutter Center
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
Advantages Why Wright State can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Wright State about 10.9 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Wright State win 4,890 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to Wright State in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Wright State 85th (+6.0), Air Force 362nd (-27.2) of 365.
- Wright State's shooting (54.3% eFG%, 56th in Division I) meets a Air Force defense that ranks 350th.
Disadvantages Why Wright State may not
- Strength of schedule: Air Force 44th (+1.2), Wright State 240th (-0.3) of 365.
- Upset odds: Air Force win 110 of 5,000 simulations (2%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WRST -21.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 147.9 |
| Win chance | AF n/a · WRST n/a | AF 2% · WRST 98% |
| Fair moneyline | AF +4405 · WRST -4405 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wright State 85, Air Force 64.
- 80% of simulations land between Wright State by 7 and Wright State by 34.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
AF Air Force
Every regular played last game.
WRST Wright State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| AF | WRST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -27.2 362 | Net rating | +6.0 85 |
| 91.3 362 | Offensive rating | 115.4 55 |
| 118.5 352 | Defensive rating | 109.3 206 |
| +1.2 44 | Strength of schedule | -0.3 240 |
| 48.9% 291 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 56 |
| 56.4% 350 | Opponent eFG% | 52.4% 238 |
| 21.9 360 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.1 147 |
| 21.4% 359 | Offensive rebound % | 32.8% 91 |
| 30.6% 331 | 3-point % | 36.4% 44 |
| 67.4 258 | Pace | 69.1 170 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-30 | 2024-25 | Air Force 57 @ Wright State 70 | WRST |
| 2011-12-07 | 2011-12 | Wright State 34 @ Air Force 55 | AF |
| 2010-12-08 | 2010-11 | Air Force 61 @ Wright State 76 | WRST |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works