Charleston Southern @ South Florida
College basketball 2026-27 · Big South vs American · · Yuengling Center
A probability, not a promise. A 91% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why South Florida can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated South Florida about 6.9 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: South Florida win 4,570 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to South Florida in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): South Florida 23rd (+13.8), Charleston Southern 179th (-0.0) of 365.
- Home court: South Florida play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
Disadvantages Why South Florida may not
- Upset odds: Charleston Southern win 430 of 5,000 simulations (9%). A 91% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Charleston Southern 78th (35.6%), South Florida 254th (32.5%) of 365.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Charleston Southern 174th (69.7%), South Florida 252nd (68.1%) of 365.
- Weak spot: South Florida rank 254th of 365 in three-point shooting (32.5%).
- Weak spot: South Florida rank 252nd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (68.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | USF -15.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 164.4 |
| Win chance | CHSO n/a · USF n/a | CHSO 9% · USF 91% |
| Fair moneyline | CHSO +1057 · USF -1057 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: South Florida 89, Charleston Southern 74.
- 80% of simulations land between South Florida by 1 and South Florida by 29.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
CHSO Charleston Southern
Every regular played last game.
USF South Florida
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| CHSO | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -0.0 179 | Net rating | +13.8 23 |
| 107.7 191 | Offensive rating | 116.6 41 |
| 107.8 156 | Defensive rating | 102.9 56 |
| -0.8 321 | Strength of schedule | +0.7 82 |
| 54.1% 66 | Effective FG% | 50.6% 209 |
| 46.9% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 48.8% 58 |
| 18.5 297 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.1 74 |
| 29.4% 223 | Offensive rebound % | 38.1% 7 |
| 35.6% 78 | 3-point % | 32.5% 254 |
| 75.1 5 | Pace | 74.4 9 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-02 | 2022-23 | Charleston Southern 59 @ South Florida 79 | USF |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works