Texas Southern @ Grand Canyon
College basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs Mountain West · · Global Credit Union Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Grand Canyon can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Grand Canyon about 5.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Grand Canyon win 4,420 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Grand Canyon 47th (+10.1), Texas Southern 292nd (-8.5) of 365.
- Home court: Grand Canyon play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Point differential per game: Grand Canyon 48th (+7.0), Texas Southern 301st (-6.1) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Grand Canyon may not
- Upset odds: Texas Southern win 580 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Grand Canyon lose by 2 or more.
- Weak spot: Grand Canyon rank 285th of 365 in three-point shooting (31.8%).
- Weak spot: Grand Canyon rank 246th of 365 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (17.6).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GCU -13 |
| Total points | n/a | 150.1 |
| Win chance | TXSO n/a · GCU n/a | TXSO 12% · GCU 88% |
| Fair moneyline | TXSO +764 · GCU -764 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grand Canyon 81, Texas Southern 68.
- 80% of simulations land between Texas Southern by 2 and Grand Canyon by 27.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
TXSO Texas Southern
Every regular played last game.
GCU Grand Canyon
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| TXSO | GCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -8.5 292 | Net rating | +10.1 47 |
| 102.9 291 | Offensive rating | 109.2 154 |
| 111.3 256 | Defensive rating | 99.1 20 |
| -0.9 331 | Strength of schedule | -0.1 189 |
| 49.7% 251 | Effective FG% | 51.7% 162 |
| 52.5% 240 | Opponent eFG% | 47.4% 28 |
| 18.5 298 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.6 246 |
| 28.8% 237 | Offensive rebound % | 31.3% 150 |
| 33.1% 223 | 3-point % | 31.8% 285 |
| 71.8 40 | Pace | 69.3 165 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works