Gardner-Webb @ UConn
College basketball 2026-27 · Big South vs Big East · · Gampel Pavilion
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
Advantages Why UConn can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): UConn 12th (+17.2), Gardner-Webb 363rd (-29.0) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated UConn about 19.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.8 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Simulation: UConn win 4,980 of 5,000 simulated games.
- UConn's shooting (54.3% eFG%, 59th in Division I) meets a Gardner-Webb defense that ranks 356th.
Disadvantages Why UConn may not
- Upset odds: Gardner-Webb win 20 of 5,000 simulations (under 1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
- Weak spot: UConn rank 304th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CONN -31.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 143.8 |
| Win chance | GWEB n/a · CONN n/a | GWEB 0% · CONN 100% |
| Fair moneyline | GWEB +22627 · CONN -22627 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: UConn 90, Gardner-Webb 64.
- 80% of simulations land between UConn by 13 and UConn by 39.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
GWEB Gardner-Webb
Every regular played last game.
CONN UConn
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| GWEB | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -29.0 363 | Net rating | +17.2 12 |
| 93.5 359 | Offensive rating | 115.8 50 |
| 122.4 360 | Defensive rating | 98.6 16 |
| +0.4 99 | Strength of schedule | +1.9 14 |
| 47.8% 316 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 59 |
| 56.9% 356 | Opponent eFG% | 45.7% 7 |
| 19.8 343 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.4 163 |
| 23.2% 349 | Offensive rebound % | 35.7% 30 |
| 31.0% 319 | 3-point % | 34.4% 150 |
| 70.8 84 | Pace | 66.1 306 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works