Robert Morris @ Nevada
College basketball 2026-27 · Horizon vs Mountain West · · Lawlor Events Center
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nevada can win
- Simulation: Nevada win 3,585 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Nevada play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nevada 55th (14.8), Robert Morris 301st (18.6) of 365.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nevada 3rd (0.34), Robert Morris 348th (0.19) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: Nevada 98th (+0.4), Robert Morris 284th (-0.5) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Nevada may not
- Robert Morris's shooting (54.9% eFG%, 39th in Division I) meets a Nevada defense that ranks 166th.
- Upset odds: Robert Morris win 1,415 of 5,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Nevada lose by 8 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Robert Morris 11th (37.5%), Nevada 119th (32.2%) of 365.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Robert Morris in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NEV -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 145.4 |
| Win chance | RMU n/a · NEV n/a | RMU 28% · NEV 72% |
| Fair moneyline | RMU +254 · NEV -254 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nevada 78, Robert Morris 72.
- 80% of simulations land between Robert Morris by 8 and Nevada by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
RMU Robert Morris
Every regular played last game.
NEV Nevada
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| RMU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +5.1 98 | Net rating | +6.6 80 |
| 113.9 72 | Offensive rating | 112.4 95 |
| 108.8 188 | Defensive rating | 105.7 102 |
| -0.5 284 | Strength of schedule | +0.4 98 |
| 54.9% 39 | Effective FG% | 50.0% 234 |
| 50.0% 100 | Opponent eFG% | 51.1% 166 |
| 18.6 301 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 55 |
| 37.5% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 32.2% 119 |
| 38.0% 18 | 3-point % | 35.8% 70 |
| 67.5 255 | Pace | 67.7 242 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works