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AZMango
UTSA

UTSA @ San José State

College basketball 2026-27 · American vs Mountain West · · Provident Credit Union Event Center

SJSU
Our pick
SJSUSan José State Spartans
74% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why San José State can win

  1. Simulation: San José State win 3,720 of 5,000 simulated games.
  2. Home court: San José State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. San José State's offense (107.3 points per 100 possessions, 204th in Division I) meets a UTSA defense that ranks 354th.
  4. Three-point shooting: San José State 97th (35.3%), UTSA 350th (29.2%) of 365.
  5. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): San José State 77th (15.1), UTSA 235th (17.5) of 365.

Disadvantages Why San José State may not

  1. Upset odds: UTSA win 1,280 of 5,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations San José State lose by 7 or more.
  3. Weak spot: San José State rank 359th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.1%).
  4. Weak spot: San José State rank 358th of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (120.0).
  5. Weak spot: San José State rank 353rd of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (63.5%).

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSJSU -6.9
Total pointsn/a150.1
Win chanceUTSA n/a · SJSU n/aUTSA 26% · SJSU 74%
Fair moneylineUTSA +291 · SJSU -291

No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

5,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: San José State 79, UTSA 72.
  • 80% of simulations land between UTSA by 7 and San José State by 21.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Still out?

College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.

UTSA UTSA

Every regular played last game.

SJSU San José State

Every regular played last game.

Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.

Side by side

UTSASJSU
0-0Record0-0
-22.5 358Net rating-12.7 330
96.7 347Offensive rating107.3 204
119.2 354Defensive rating120.0 358
+0.1 135Strength of schedule+0.8 76
44.8% 359Effective FG%49.7% 255
53.3% 277Opponent eFG%57.1% 359
17.5 235Turnovers per 10015.1 77
30.2% 191Offensive rebound %29.3% 225
29.2% 3503-point %35.3% 97
69.6 141Pace66.0 314

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 4 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2013-03-122012-13UTSA 67 @ San José State 49 (neutral)UTSA
2012-12-312012-13San José State 80 @ UTSA 67SJSU
2011-11-302011-12UTSA 66 @ San José State 72SJSU
2010-11-302010-11San José State 63 @ UTSA 72UTSA

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).

26%UTSA
74%San José State

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)