North Alabama @ UC Davis
College basketball 2026-27 · UAC vs Mountain West · · University Credit Union Center
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why UC Davis can win
- Simulation: UC Davis win 4,070 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): UC Davis 177th (+0.0), North Alabama 343rd (-15.3) of 365.
- UC Davis's shooting (51.8% eFG%, 157th in Division I) meets a North Alabama defense that ranks 337th.
- Home court: UC Davis play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated UC Davis about 2.1 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why UC Davis may not
- Upset odds: North Alabama win 930 of 5,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): North Alabama 160th (31.2%), UC Davis 333rd (25.2%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations UC Davis lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: UC Davis rank 333rd of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (25.2%).
- Weak spot: UC Davis rank 285th of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UCD -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 148.1 |
| Win chance | UNA n/a · UCD n/a | UNA 19% · UCD 81% |
| Fair moneyline | UNA +436 · UCD -436 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: UC Davis 80, North Alabama 70.
- 80% of simulations land between North Alabama by 5 and UC Davis by 24.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
UNA North Alabama
Every regular played last game.
UCD UC Davis
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| UNA | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -15.3 343 | Net rating | +0.0 177 |
| 102.6 296 | Offensive rating | 105.9 230 |
| 117.9 347 | Defensive rating | 105.8 103 |
| -0.6 302 | Strength of schedule | -0.5 285 |
| 48.0% 311 | Effective FG% | 51.8% 157 |
| 55.2% 337 | Opponent eFG% | 51.7% 197 |
| 17.5 240 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.9 266 |
| 31.2% 160 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 333 |
| 30.7% 326 | 3-point % | 34.4% 149 |
| 66.2 303 | Pace | 71.8 39 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works