Northern Kentucky vs UTEP
College basketball 2026-27 · Horizon vs Mountain West · · Don Haskins Center
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Northern Kentucky can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Northern Kentucky about 6.3 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Northern Kentucky win 3,620 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Northern Kentucky 124th (+3.1), UTEP 304th (-9.4) of 365.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Northern Kentucky in our ratings.
- Northern Kentucky's shooting (53.2% eFG%, 93rd in Division I) meets a UTEP defense that ranks 187th.
Disadvantages Why Northern Kentucky may not
- Upset odds: UTEP win 1,380 of 5,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Northern Kentucky lose by 8 or more.
- Strength of schedule: UTEP 120th (+0.3), Northern Kentucky 211th (-0.2) of 365.
- Weak spot: Northern Kentucky rank 305th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (54.2%).
- Weak spot: Northern Kentucky rank 284th of 365 in points allowed per game (78.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NKU -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 147.8 |
| Win chance | NKU n/a · UTEP n/a | NKU 72% · UTEP 28% |
| Fair moneyline | NKU -263 · UTEP +263 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: UTEP 72, Northern Kentucky 78.
- 80% of simulations land between Northern Kentucky by 20 and UTEP by 8.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
NKU Northern Kentucky
Every regular played last game.
UTEP UTEP
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| NKU | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +3.1 124 | Net rating | -9.4 304 |
| 113.2 81 | Offensive rating | 99.8 329 |
| 110.1 222 | Defensive rating | 109.1 197 |
| -0.2 211 | Strength of schedule | +0.3 120 |
| 53.2% 93 | Effective FG% | 48.3% 308 |
| 54.2% 305 | Opponent eFG% | 51.5% 187 |
| 16.3 156 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.4 230 |
| 32.2% 117 | Offensive rebound % | 26.2% 318 |
| 33.6% 192 | 3-point % | 33.9% 177 |
| 71.5 55 | Pace | 66.6 290 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works