American University @ Cincinnati
College basketball 2026-27 · Patriot vs Big 12 · · Fifth Third Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cincinnati can win
- Simulation: Cincinnati win 3,855 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Cincinnati play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cincinnati 67th (+8.0), American University 200th (-1.0) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Cincinnati about 1.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Cincinnati's shooting (50.5% eFG%, 213th in Division I) meets a American University defense that ranks 313th.
Disadvantages Why Cincinnati may not
- Upset odds: American University win 1,145 of 5,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Cincinnati lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Cincinnati rank 338th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.20).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): American University 114th (15.6), Cincinnati 203rd (17.0) of 365.
- Weak spot: Cincinnati rank 244th of 365 in offense, points per 100 possessions (105.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 142.3 |
| Win chance | AMER n/a · CIN n/a | AMER 23% · CIN 77% |
| Fair moneyline | AMER +337 · CIN -337 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cincinnati 79, American University 71.
- 80% of simulations land between American University by 6 and Cincinnati by 22.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
AMER American University
Every regular played last game.
CIN Cincinnati
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| AMER | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -1.0 200 | Net rating | +8.0 67 |
| 107.9 185 | Offensive rating | 105.3 244 |
| 109.0 194 | Defensive rating | 97.3 9 |
| -0.4 255 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 62 |
| 51.5% 169 | Effective FG% | 50.5% 213 |
| 54.4% 313 | Opponent eFG% | 47.3% 27 |
| 15.6 114 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.0 203 |
| 26.9% 298 | Offensive rebound % | 30.6% 174 |
| 33.0% 234 | 3-point % | 33.9% 174 |
| 66.7 288 | Pace | 69.4 151 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works