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FDU

Fairleigh Dickinson @ #3 Illinois

College basketball 2026-27 · NEC vs Big Ten · · State Farm Center

ILL
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
ILLIllinois Fighting Illini
98% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetILL -22
Totaln/a142.3
Moneylinen/aFDU +4210
ILL -4210 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

ILL 86, FDU 64Typical score
ILL by 7 to ILL by 358 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Illinois can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Illinois about 11.7 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Illinois 7th (+21.7), Fairleigh Dickinson 324th (-11.7) of 365.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to Illinois in our ratings.
  4. Illinois's offense (125.0 points per 100 possessions, 1st in Division I) meets a Fairleigh Dickinson defense that ranks 286th.
  5. Team matchup: where Illinois can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (46th of 365) meets the Fairleigh Dickinson shooting defense (336th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Keaton Wagler (Illinois: 17.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.2 ast, Game Score 14.9) has the edge on Taeshaud Jackson (Fairleigh Dickinson: 10.3 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 8.8).
  7. Simulation: Illinois win 4,885 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Illinois may not

  1. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Fairleigh Dickinson 215th (16.1), Illinois 364th (11.6) of 365.
  2. Weak spot: Illinois rank 364th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.6).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Illinois may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (3rd of 365) meets the Fairleigh Dickinson defensive rebounding (46th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Illinois on paper, but Taeshaud Jackson (10.3 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 8.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Fairleigh Dickinson win 115 of 5,000 simulations (2%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 2 times in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

FDU Fairleigh Dickinson

Every regular played last game.

ILL Illinois

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

FDUILL
0-0Record0-0
-11.7 324Net rating+21.7 7
101.1 312Offensive rating125.0 1
112.8 286Defensive rating103.3 65
-0.8 319Strength of schedule+2.0 11
47.1% 332Effective FG%54.7% 46
55.2% 336Opponent eFG%47.3% 26
18.1 280Turnovers per 10013.1 10
32.0% 125Offensive rebound %39.2% 3
30.3% 3383-point %34.5% 142
64.4 355Pace66.5 291

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2023-12-292023-24Fairleigh Dickinson 71 @ Illinois 104ILL

What if?

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2%Fairleigh Dickinson
98%Illinois

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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