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Canisius @ Penn State

College basketball 2026-27 · Metro vs Big Ten · · Bryce Jordan Center

PSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
PSUPenn State Nittany Lions
71% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetPSU -6.1
Totaln/a143.8
Moneylinen/aCAN +248
PSU -248 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

PSU 78, CAN 72Typical score
CAN by 8 to PSU by 208 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Penn State can win

  1. Home court: Penn State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Penn State 108th (15.6), Canisius 340th (19.6) of 365.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Penn State about 1.5 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Strength of schedule: Penn State 27th (+1.5), Canisius 216th (-0.2) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Penn State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (112th of 365) meets the Canisius ball security (340th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (102nd of 365) meets the Canisius shooting defense (225th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kayden Mingo (Penn State: 13.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.3 ast, Game Score 11.4) has the edge on Kahlil Singleton (Canisius: 13.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 8.8).
  7. Simulation: Penn State win 3,565 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Penn State may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Canisius in our ratings.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Penn State lose by 8 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Penn State rank 363rd of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (58.4%).
  4. Weak spot: Penn State rank 345th of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (117.6).
  5. Team matchup: Canisius have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Penn State on paper, but Kahlil Singleton (13.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 8.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Canisius win 1,435 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

CAN Canisius

Every regular played last game.

PSU Penn State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

CANPSU
0-0Record0-0
-14.1 339Net rating-8.4 291
96.3 350Offensive rating109.2 148
110.5 229Defensive rating117.6 345
-0.2 216Strength of schedule+1.5 27
46.3% 347Effective FG%53.0% 102
52.2% 225Opponent eFG%58.4% 363
19.6 340Turnovers per 10015.6 108
29.3% 226Offensive rebound %25.9% 324
33.3% 2123-point %32.4% 262
64.6 352Pace67.5 254

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2022-12-182022-23Canisius 67 @ Penn State 97PSU
2015-12-102015-16Canisius 67 @ Penn State 81PSU

What if?

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29%Canisius
71%Penn State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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