Illinois State @ Saint Mary's
College basketball 2026-27 · Missouri Valley vs WCC · · University Credit Union Pavilion
- Illinois State MVC 0-0, 5th · 0-0 overall
- Saint Mary's WCC 0-0, 6th · 0-0 overall
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SMC -10.8 |
| Total | n/a | 141.1 |
| Moneyline | n/a | ILST +507 SMC -507 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Saint Mary's can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Saint Mary's about 3.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Saint Mary's play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Saint Mary's in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Saint Mary's 11th (37.5%), Illinois State 268th (28.0%) of 365.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Saint Mary's. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (11th of 365) meets the Illinois State defensive rebounding (13th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Paulius Murauskas (Saint Mary's: 18.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 14.3) has the edge on Chase Walker (Illinois State: 13.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 10.4); at guard, Joshua Dent (Saint Mary's: 13.2 pts, 2.5 reb, 5.6 ast, Game Score 11.8) has the edge on Ty Pence (Illinois State: 9.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 7.9).
- Simulation: Saint Mary's win 4,175 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Saint Mary's may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Saint Mary's lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Saint Mary's rank 269th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.2).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Team matchup: a strength Saint Mary's may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (11th of 365) meets the Illinois State defensive rebounding (13th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Saint Mary's on paper, but Chase Walker (13.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 10.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Illinois State win 825 of 5,000 simulations (17%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
ILST Illinois State
Every regular played last game.
SMC Saint Mary's
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| ILST | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +7.5 74 | Net rating | +17.4 11 |
| 109.5 144 | Offensive rating | 116.0 47 |
| 102.1 42 | Defensive rating | 98.6 17 |
| +0.1 157 | Strength of schedule | +0.7 81 |
| 53.6% 77 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 109 |
| 49.8% 90 | Opponent eFG% | 46.8% 19 |
| 16.9 194 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.8 189 |
| 28.0% 268 | Offensive rebound % | 37.5% 11 |
| 34.9% 126 | 3-point % | 38.7% 7 |
| 67.7 240 | Pace | 66.2 304 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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