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NDSU

North Dakota State @ Saint Mary's

NCAAB · · University Credit Union Pavilion

SMC

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
SMCSaint Mary's Gaels
88% to win
ModelNDSU 12%SMC 88%
MarketNDSU 15%SMC 85%

4 points above the market (85%), our benchmark. Not a promise: a 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadSMC -12.5Same
Total149.5Same
MoneylineNDSU +525
SMC -750		NDSU +759
SMC -759 fair

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
SMC 81, NDSU 68
8 in 10 games
NDSU by 1 to SMC by 27
SMC covers -12.5
50%
Over 149.5
50%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Line movement

Logged : Saint Mary's by 12.5, total 149.5.

Advantages Why Saint Mary's can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Saint Mary's about 3.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Home court: Saint Mary's play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  3. Strength of schedule: Saint Mary's 81st (+1.2), North Dakota State 324th (-1.4) of 365.
  4. Team matchup: where Saint Mary's can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (110th of 365) meets the North Dakota State shooting defense (218th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  5. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Joshua Dent (Saint Mary's: 13.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 5.5 ast, Game Score 11.5; filling in for Mikey Lewis, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) has the edge on Andy Stefonowicz (North Dakota State: 9.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.8 ast, Game Score 9.1; filling in for Damari Wheeler-Thomas, doubtful, not on the team's current roster).
  6. Simulation: Saint Mary's win 4,420 of 5,000 simulated games.
  7. The betting market agrees: Saint Mary's 85% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why Saint Mary's may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Saint Mary's lose by 1 or more.
  2. Weak spot: Saint Mary's rank 255th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.5).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: where North Dakota State can push back. Their ball pressure (63rd of 365) meets the Saint Mary's ball security (179th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Saint Mary's on paper, but Andy Stefonowicz (9.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.8 ast, Game Score 9.1; filling in for Damari Wheeler-Thomas, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: North Dakota State win 580 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

NDSU North Dakota State

  • DoubtfulDamari Wheeler-Thomasnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulEmil Skyttanot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulMarkhi Stricklandnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulRiley Saundersnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulTay Smithnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

SMC Saint Mary's

  • DoubtfulAndrew McKeevernot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulHarry Wesselsnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulLiam Campbellnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulMikey Lewisnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

NDSUSMC
0-0Record1-0
+10.5 44Net rating+17.1 14
113.8 73Offensive rating116.1 46
103.3 60Defensive rating99.0 19
-1.4 324Strength of schedule+1.2 81
53.2% 92Effective FG%52.8% 110
52.0% 218Opponent eFG%47.2% 24
15.6 110Turnovers per 10016.7 179
32.9% 92Offensive rebound %37.6% 11
35.4% 953-point %38.4% 10
69.2 172Pace66.5 298

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • North Dakota State 65 @ Saint Mary's 78Nov 14, 2013

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

North Dakota State12%
88%Saint Mary's

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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