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SOU

Southern @ SMU

College basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs ACC · · Moody Coliseum (Dallas)

SMU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
SMUSMU Mustangs
79% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSMU -8.8
Totaln/a157.2
Moneylinen/aSOU +377
SMU -377 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

SMU 83, SOU 74Typical score
SOU by 5 to SMU by 238 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why SMU can win

  1. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): SMU 64th (+8.6), Southern 259th (-5.6) of 365.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated SMU about 2.8 points stronger over recent games.
  3. SMU's offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 35th in Division I) meets a Southern defense that ranks 241st.
  4. Home court: SMU play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  5. Team matchup: where SMU can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (26th of 365) meets the Southern shooting defense (274th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (37th of 365) meets the Southern defensive rebounding (217th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Boopie Miller (SMU: 19.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.4 ast, Game Score 15.8) has the edge on Michael Jacobs (Southern: 17.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.1 ast, Game Score 12.2).
  7. Simulation: SMU win 3,950 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why SMU may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations SMU lose by 5 or more.
  2. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Southern 102nd (0.28), SMU 263rd (0.23) of 365.
  3. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Southern 66th (18.6), SMU 163rd (16.8) of 365.
  4. Weak spot: SMU rank 265th of 365 in points allowed per game (77.9).
  5. Team matchup: where Southern can push back. Their offensive rebounding (144th of 365) meets the SMU defensive rebounding (237th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean SMU on paper, but Michael Jacobs (17.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.1 ast, Game Score 12.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Southern win 1,050 of 5,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

SOU Southern

Every regular played last game.

SMU SMU

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

SOUSMU
0-0Record0-0
-5.6 259Net rating+8.6 64
105.3 243Offensive rating118.2 35
110.9 241Defensive rating109.6 210
-0.4 260Strength of schedule+1.1 52
49.1% 287Effective FG%55.6% 26
53.2% 274Opponent eFG%51.6% 189
16.5 170Turnovers per 10015.7 116
31.4% 144Offensive rebound %35.4% 37
34.8% 1293-point %37.1% 27
72.3 28Pace71.1 68

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

21%Southern
79%SMU

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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