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UMBC

UMBC @ George Mason

College basketball 2026-27 · America East vs Atlantic 10 · · EagleBank Arena

GMU
Rankings and standings

Game day

No over/under yet · our total 140.8

  1. Tip-off
Our pick
GMUGeorge Mason Patriots
64% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetGMU -3.7
Totaln/a140.8
Moneylinen/aUMBC +175
GMU -175 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

GMU 77, UMBC 73Typical score
UMBC by 10 to GMU by 178 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why George Mason can win

  1. Home court: George Mason play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Strength of schedule: George Mason 116th (+0.3), UMBC 361st (-1.2) of 365.
  3. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): George Mason 149th (31.3%), UMBC 341st (24.9%) of 365.
  4. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated George Mason about 0.8 points stronger over recent games.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors George Mason. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (113th of 365) meets the UMBC shooting defense (79th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors George Mason. The closest: best player against best player, Riley Allenspach (George Mason: 13.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 10.7) is about even with Ace Valentine (UMBC: 11.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.9 ast, Game Score 10.6).
  7. Simulation: George Mason win 3,180 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why George Mason may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to UMBC in our ratings.
  2. Three-point shooting: UMBC 55th (36.1%), George Mason 213th (33.3%) of 365.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations George Mason lose by 10 or more.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): UMBC 25th (14.0), George Mason 122nd (15.8) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: a strength George Mason may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (113th of 365) meets the UMBC shooting defense (79th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean George Mason on paper, but Ace Valentine (11.9 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.9 ast, Game Score 10.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: UMBC win 1,820 of 5,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

UMBC UMBC

Every regular played last game.

GMU George Mason

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UMBCGMU
0-0Record0-0
+10.6 43Net rating+7.6 70
112.9 87Offensive rating112.6 92
102.2 47Defensive rating105.0 88
-1.2 361Strength of schedule+0.3 116
54.1% 64Effective FG%52.7% 113
49.4% 79Opponent eFG%49.5% 83
14.0 25Turnovers per 10015.8 122
24.9% 341Offensive rebound %31.3% 149
36.1% 553-point %33.3% 213
67.1 277Pace64.7 350

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2019-12-212019-20UMBC 53 @ George Mason 69GMU
2012-12-042012-13UMBC 63 @ George Mason 74GMU

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

36%UMBC
64%George Mason

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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