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Longwood @ Saint Joseph's

NCAAB · · Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena

JOES

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
JOESSaint Joseph's Hawks
73% to win
ModelLONG 27%JOES 73%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetJOES -6.6
Totaln/a149.1
Moneylinen/aLONG +270
JOES -270 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
JOES 79, LONG 72
8 in 10 games
LONG by 7 to JOES by 20
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Saint Joseph's can win

  1. Home court: Saint Joseph's play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Strength of schedule: Saint Joseph's 122nd (+0.4), Longwood 350th (-1.7) of 365.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Saint Joseph's 183rd (16.8), Longwood 323rd (19.1) of 365.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Saint Joseph's in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Saint Joseph's. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (291st of 365) meets the Longwood ball security (323rd), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Derek Simpson (Saint Joseph's: 13.8 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.2 ast, Game Score 12.3) has the edge on Elijah Tucker (Longwood: 12.5 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 9.4).
  7. Simulation: Saint Joseph's win 3,650 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Saint Joseph's may not

  1. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Longwood 34th (0.31), Saint Joseph's 294th (0.22) of 365.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Saint Joseph's lose by 7 or more.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Longwood 53rd (72.3%), Saint Joseph's 186th (69.4%) of 365.
  4. Weak spot: Saint Joseph's rank 326th of 365 in three-point shooting (30.8%).
  5. Team matchup: where Longwood can push back. Their ball pressure (29th of 365) meets the Saint Joseph's ball security (183rd), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (59th of 365) meets the Saint Joseph's defensive rebounding (186th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Saint Joseph's on paper, but Elijah Tucker (12.5 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 9.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Longwood win 1,350 of 5,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

LONG Longwood

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

JOES Saint Joseph's

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

LONGJOES
0-0Record0-0
-0.5 189Net rating+1.8 150
106.2 219Offensive rating105.1 246
106.7 127Defensive rating103.3 61
-1.7 350Strength of schedule+0.4 122
49.7% 254Effective FG%49.2% 280
53.8% 296Opponent eFG%47.7% 34
19.1 323Turnovers per 10016.8 183
34.6% 59Offensive rebound %31.4% 151
31.4% 3073-point %30.8% 326
71.5 55Pace68.4 208

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Longwood27%
73%Saint Joseph's

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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