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UNF

North Florida @ California Baptist

College basketball 2026-27 · ASUN vs Big West · · Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center

CBU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CBUCalifornia Baptist Lancers
94% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCBU -16.3
Totaln/a153.3
Moneylinen/aUNF +1429
CBU -1429 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

CBU 84, UNF 68Typical score
CBU by 3 to CBU by 308 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why California Baptist can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated California Baptist about 7.8 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): California Baptist 76th (+7.4), North Florida 348th (-17.2) of 365.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to California Baptist in our ratings.
  4. Home court: California Baptist play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  5. Team matchup: where California Baptist can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (13th of 365) meets the North Florida defensive rebounding (360th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (153rd of 365) meets the North Florida ball security (264th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: North Florida play fast (31st of 365 in pace), California Baptist slow (216th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors California Baptist. The closest: best player against best player, Dominique Daniels Jr. (California Baptist: 23.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.2 ast, Game Score 14.7) is about even with Kamrin Oriol (North Florida: 20.9 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.2 ast, Game Score 14.0).
  7. Simulation: California Baptist win 4,675 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why California Baptist may not

  1. Strength of schedule: North Florida 99th (+0.4), California Baptist 317th (-0.7) of 365.
  2. Weak spot: California Baptist rank 317th of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.7).
  3. Weak spot: California Baptist rank 307th of 365 in effective shooting (eFG%) (48.3%).
  4. Three-point shooting: North Florida 117th (35.0%), California Baptist 199th (33.4%) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: North Florida have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Dalton Gayman (North Florida: 10.3 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 8.2) has the edge on Jonathan Griman (California Baptist: 6.1 pts, 5.9 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 5.4).
  7. Upset odds: North Florida win 325 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

UNF North Florida

Every regular played last game.

CBU California Baptist

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

UNFCBU
0-0Record0-0
-17.2 348Net rating+7.4 76
106.8 211Offensive rating106.5 216
124.0 362Defensive rating99.0 19
+0.4 99Strength of schedule-0.7 317
52.9% 106Effective FG%48.3% 307
56.3% 349Opponent eFG%46.3% 16
17.9 264Turnovers per 10017.9 267
25.2% 334Offensive rebound %37.5% 13
35.0% 1173-point %33.4% 199
72.2 31Pace68.2 216

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

6%North Florida
94%California Baptist

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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