Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WIS -13.1 |
| Total | n/a | 159.8 |
| Moneyline | n/a | DEN +794 WIS -794 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Wisconsin can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Wisconsin about 5.4 points stronger over recent games.
- Wisconsin's offense (118.6 points per 100 possessions, 27th in Division I) meets a Denver defense that ranks 359th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Wisconsin 53rd (+9.8), Denver 257th (-5.4) of 365.
- Home court: Wisconsin play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Team matchup: where Wisconsin can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (52nd of 365) meets the Denver shooting defense (344th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (232nd of 365) meets the Denver defensive rebounding (291st): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: At forward, Nolan Winter (Wisconsin: 13.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 13.0) has the edge on Jeremiah Burke (Denver: 14.6 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 9.2); best player against best player, Nick Boyd (Wisconsin: 20.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.3 ast, Game Score 15.8) has the edge on Carson Johnson (Denver: 20.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 13.6).
- Simulation: Wisconsin win 4,440 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Wisconsin may not
- Denver's offense (115.7 points per 100 possessions, 52nd in Division I) meets a Wisconsin defense that ranks 190th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Wisconsin lose by 1 or more.
- Weak spot: Wisconsin rank 327th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Team matchup: where Denver can push back. Their shooting efficiency (79th of 365) meets the Wisconsin shooting defense (178th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Wisconsin on paper, but Carson Johnson (20.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 13.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Denver win 560 of 5,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
DEN Denver
Every regular played last game.
WIS Wisconsin
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| DEN | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -5.4 257 | Net rating | +9.8 53 |
| 115.7 52 | Offensive rating | 118.6 27 |
| 121.1 359 | Defensive rating | 108.8 190 |
| -0.2 207 | Strength of schedule | +1.7 18 |
| 53.6% 79 | Effective FG% | 54.5% 52 |
| 56.0% 344 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 178 |
| 14.3 30 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 29.8% 213 | Offensive rebound % | 29.1% 232 |
| 36.8% 32 | 3-point % | 36.2% 50 |
| 69.4 150 | Pace | 69.9 118 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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