Notre Dame vs Villanova
College basketball 2026-27 · ACC vs Big East · · Palazzo dello Sport · Eternal City Tip-Off
- Notre Dame ACC 0-0, 1st · 1-0 overall · W1
- Villanova Big East 0-0, 11th · 0-1 overall · L1
Game day
Over/under 147.5 · ours too
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | VILL -7.5 | Same |
| Total | 147.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | ND +245 VILL -305 | ND +301 VILL -301 fair |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Villanova can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Villanova about 3.5 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Villanova 63rd (+8.7), Notre Dame 203rd (-1.3) of 365.
- Villanova's offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 64th in Division I) meets a Notre Dame defense that ranks 252nd.
- Team matchup: where Villanova can take advantage. Their ball pressure (69th of 365) meets the Notre Dame ball security (202nd), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (74th of 365) meets the Notre Dame shooting defense (200th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Tyler Perkins (Villanova: 13.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 10.9; filling in for Duke Brennan, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) has the edge on Braeden Shrewsberry (Notre Dame: 11.9 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 7.5; filling in for Markus Burton, doubtful, not on the team's current roster); at forward, Matt Hodge (Villanova: 9.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 6.6; filling in for Acaden Lewis, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) has the edge on Brady Koehler (Notre Dame: 5.6 pts, 3.2 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 4.1; filling in for Jalen Haralson, doubtful, not on the team's current roster).
- Simulation: Villanova win 3,750 of 5,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Villanova 72% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Villanova may not
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Notre Dame 27th (73.3%), Villanova 246th (68.2%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Villanova lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Villanova rank 315th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.21).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Notre Dame 228th (0.24), Villanova 315th (0.21) of 365.
- Team matchup: where Notre Dame can push back. Their offensive rebounding (155th of 365) meets the Villanova defensive rebounding (246th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Villanova on paper, but Braeden Shrewsberry (11.9 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 7.5; filling in for Markus Burton, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Notre Dame win 1,250 of 5,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
ND Notre Dame
Every regular played last game.
VILL Villanova
Every regular played last game.
Also out or questionable
Notre Dame
- Doubtful Carson Towt: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Cole Certa: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Jalen Haralson: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Markus Burton: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Sir Mohammed: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
Villanova
- Doubtful Acaden Lewis: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Bryce Lindsay: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Chris Jeffrey: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Devin Askew: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Duke Brennan: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
- Doubtful Malachi Palmer: not on the team's current roster (ESPN team rosters, 2026-11-01)
From ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by side
| ND | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -1.3 203 | Net rating | +8.7 63 |
| 109.9 136 | Offensive rating | 114.7 64 |
| 111.2 252 | Defensive rating | 105.9 104 |
| +0.9 67 | Strength of schedule | +1.2 46 |
| 52.3% 133 | Effective FG% | 53.8% 74 |
| 51.8% 200 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 181 |
| 17.0 202 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 66 |
| 31.2% 155 | Offensive rebound % | 32.2% 118 |
| 35.6% 82 | 3-point % | 35.7% 77 |
| 67.7 238 | Pace | 67.3 269 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-10 | 2016-17 | Notre Dame 66 @ Villanova 74 (neutral) | VILL |
| 2013-01-30 | 2012-13 | Villanova 60 @ Notre Dame 65 | ND |
| 2012-02-18 | 2011-12 | Notre Dame 74 @ Villanova 70 | ND |
| 2011-02-28 | 2010-11 | Villanova 72 @ Notre Dame 93 | ND |
| 2010-01-27 | 2009-10 | Notre Dame 72 @ Villanova 90 | VILL |
Your pick
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