Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GONZ -1.9 |
| Total | n/a | 145.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | GONZ -134 PUR +134 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why Gonzaga can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Gonzaga about 3.4 points stronger over recent games.
- Gonzaga's offense (119.7 points per 100 possessions, 16th in Division I) meets a Purdue defense that ranks 159th.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Gonzaga 24th (20.0), Purdue 262nd (15.3) of 365.
- AP poll: Gonzaga are ranked No. 15; Purdue are unranked.
- Team matchup: where Gonzaga can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (25th of 365) meets the Purdue shooting defense (232nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: Gonzaga play fast (98th of 365 in pace), Purdue slow (332nd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Graham Ike (Gonzaga: 19.9 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 16.3) has the edge on Braden Smith (Purdue: 14.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.8 ast, Game Score 13.9).
- Simulation: Gonzaga win 2,865 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Gonzaga may not
- Three-point shooting: Purdue 11th (38.3%), Gonzaga 211th (33.3%) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Gonzaga lose by 12 or more.
- Strength of schedule: Purdue 10th (+2.2), Gonzaga 107th (+0.4) of 365.
- Weak spot: Gonzaga rank 298th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
- Team matchup: a strength Gonzaga may not get to use. Their ball pressure (24th of 365) meets the Purdue ball security (17th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Gonzaga on paper, but Braden Smith (14.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.8 ast, Game Score 13.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Purdue win 2,135 of 5,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
GONZ Gonzaga
Every regular played last game.
PUR Purdue
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| GONZ | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +25.7 2 | Net rating | +17.0 14 |
| 119.7 16 | Offensive rating | 124.8 2 |
| 94.0 1 | Defensive rating | 107.8 159 |
| +0.4 107 | Strength of schedule | +2.2 10 |
| 55.6% 25 | Effective FG% | 57.6% 10 |
| 46.3% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 52.4% 232 |
| 13.6 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 17 |
| 34.8% 52 | Offensive rebound % | 36.4% 19 |
| 33.3% 211 | 3-point % | 38.3% 11 |
| 70.4 98 | Pace | 65.4 332 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | Postseason | Gonzaga 68 @ Purdue 80 (neutral) | PUR |
| 2023-11-20 | 2023-24 | Purdue 73 @ Gonzaga 63 (neutral) | PUR |
| 2022-11-25 | 2022-23 | Purdue 84 @ Gonzaga 66 (neutral) | PUR |
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