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FGCU

Florida Gulf Coast @ UCF

College basketball 2026-27 · ASUN vs Big 12 · · Addition Financial Arena

UCF
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UCFUCF Knights
66% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUCF -4.6
Totaln/a154.7
Moneylinen/aFGCU +196
UCF -196 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

UCF 80, FGCU 75Typical score
FGCU by 9 to UCF by 188 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why UCF can win

  1. Home court: UCF play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. UCF's offense (113.3 points per 100 possessions, 78th in Division I) meets a Florida Gulf Coast defense that ranks 262nd.
  3. Strength of schedule: UCF 21st (+1.6), Florida Gulf Coast 244th (-0.3) of 365.
  4. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): UCF 120th (+3.2), Florida Gulf Coast 211th (-2.0) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where UCF can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (123rd of 365) meets the Florida Gulf Coast shooting defense (280th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors UCF. The closest: at guard, Themus Fulks (UCF: 14.0 pts, 3.0 reb, 6.7 ast, Game Score 10.3) is about even with Rahmir Barno (Florida Gulf Coast: 11.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 5.0 ast, Game Score 9.4).
  7. Simulation: UCF win 3,310 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why UCF may not

  1. Florida Gulf Coast's offense (109.6 points per 100 possessions, 143rd in Division I) meets a UCF defense that ranks 220th.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations UCF lose by 9 or more.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Florida Gulf Coast about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Weak spot: UCF rank 285th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
  5. Team matchup: where Florida Gulf Coast can push back. Their shooting efficiency (147th of 365) meets the UCF shooting defense (221st), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, J.R. Konieczny (Florida Gulf Coast: 15.6 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 12.0) has the edge on Jamichael Stillwell (UCF: 11.6 pts, 8.2 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 10.7).
  7. Upset odds: Florida Gulf Coast win 1,690 of 5,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

FGCU Florida Gulf Coast

Every regular played last game.

UCF UCF

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

FGCUUCF
0-0Record0-0
-2.0 211Net rating+3.2 120
109.6 143Offensive rating113.3 78
111.5 262Defensive rating110.1 220
-0.3 244Strength of schedule+1.6 21
52.0% 147Effective FG%52.6% 123
53.4% 280Opponent eFG%52.1% 221
15.9 131Turnovers per 10016.0 137
31.1% 161Offensive rebound %35.0% 47
33.2% 2183-point %36.2% 49
69.9 121Pace71.2 63

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-12-202025-26Florida Gulf Coast 80 @ UCF 102UCF

What if?

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34%Florida Gulf Coast
66%UCF

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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