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IDST

Idaho State @ Utah State

College basketball 2026-27 · Big Sky vs Sun Belt · · Dee Glen Smith Spectrum

USU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
USUUtah State Aggies
93% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 93% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSU -16
Totaln/a150.2
Moneylinen/aIDST +1379
USU -1379 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

USU 83, IDST 67Typical score
USU by 2 to USU by 298 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Utah State can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Utah State about 6.9 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Utah State 21st (+14.9), Idaho State 263rd (-5.8) of 365.
  3. Utah State's offense (118.9 points per 100 possessions, 25th in Division I) meets a Idaho State defense that ranks 326th.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Utah State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Utah State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (18th of 365) meets the Idaho State shooting defense (315th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (18th of 365) meets the Idaho State ball security (204th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Mason Falslev (Utah State: 16.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 3.1 ast, Game Score 14.2) has the edge on Caleb Van De Griend (Idaho State: 11.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 9.8).
  7. Simulation: Utah State win 4,660 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Utah State may not

  1. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Idaho State 63rd (72.1%), Utah State 290th (67.2%) of 365.
  2. Weak spot: Utah State rank 290th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (67.2%).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: where Idaho State can push back. Their offensive rebounding (94th of 365) meets the Utah State defensive rebounding (290th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Utah State on paper, but Caleb Van De Griend (11.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 9.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Idaho State win 340 of 5,000 simulations (7%). A 93% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

IDST Idaho State

Every regular played last game.

USU Utah State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

IDSTUSU
0-0Record0-0
-5.8 263Net rating+14.9 21
109.4 145Offensive rating118.9 25
115.3 326Defensive rating104.0 74
-0.3 225Strength of schedule+1.2 43
51.8% 151Effective FG%56.2% 18
54.5% 315Opponent eFG%49.7% 87
17.0 204Turnovers per 10015.1 70
32.8% 94Offensive rebound %32.7% 97
33.6% 1913-point %34.3% 155
67.3 265Pace68.5 206

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2016-11-192016-17Idaho State 51 @ Utah State 85USU
2015-12-222015-16Idaho State 58 @ Utah State 69USU
2014-12-192014-15Idaho State 56 @ Utah State 69USU
2012-11-102012-13Idaho State 48 @ Utah State 56USU
2011-11-262011-12Utah State 75 @ Idaho State 62USU

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

7%Idaho State
93%Utah State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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