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MONT

Montana @ Oregon

College basketball 2026-27 · Big Sky vs Big Ten · · Matthew Knight Arena

ORE
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
OREOregon Ducks
62% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetORE -3.4
Totaln/a148
Moneylinen/aMONT +160
ORE -160 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

ORE 77, MONT 74Typical score
MONT by 10 to ORE by 188 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Oregon can win

  1. Home court: Oregon play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Oregon 114th (32.3%), Montana 362nd (20.7%) of 365.
  3. Strength of schedule: Oregon 40th (+1.3), Montana 160th (+0.0) of 365.
  4. History: Oregon won 5 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  5. Team matchup: where Oregon can take advantage. Their ball pressure (233rd of 365) meets the Montana ball security (339th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: Montana play fast (72nd of 365 in pace), Oregon slow (286th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon: 13.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 11.8) has the edge on Te'Jon Sawyer (Montana: 11.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 8.3).
  7. Simulation: Oregon win 3,075 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Oregon may not

  1. Three-point shooting: Montana 38th (36.6%), Oregon 276th (32.1%) of 365.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Montana about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Montana in our ratings.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Oregon lose by 10 or more.
  5. Team matchup: where Montana can push back. Their shooting efficiency (23rd of 365) meets the Oregon shooting defense (148th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Oregon on paper, but Money Williams (20.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 14.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Montana win 1,925 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

MONT Montana

Every regular played last game.

ORE Oregon

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

MONTORE
0-0Record0-0
-2.6 222Net rating-4.6 246
106.5 214Offensive rating106.1 225
109.2 199Defensive rating110.8 234
+0.0 160Strength of schedule+1.3 40
55.8% 23Effective FG%49.5% 271
50.5% 129Opponent eFG%50.9% 148
19.6 339Turnovers per 10017.6 248
20.7% 362Offensive rebound %32.3% 114
36.6% 383-point %32.1% 276
71.1 72Pace66.8 286

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2024-11-082024-25Montana 48 @ Oregon 79ORE
2023-11-102023-24Montana 61 @ Oregon 75ORE
2021-11-292021-22Montana 47 @ Oregon 87ORE
2019-12-182019-20Montana 48 @ Oregon 81ORE
2016-12-132016-17Montana 67 @ Oregon 81ORE

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

38%Montana
62%Oregon

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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