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AMCC

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas State

College basketball 2026-27 · Southland vs Sun Belt · · Strahan Arena at the University Events Center

TXST
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
TXSTTexas State Bobcats
62% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetTXST -3.5
Totaln/a141.4
Moneylinen/aAMCC +165
TXST -165 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

TXST 77, AMCC 73Typical score
AMCC by 10 to TXST by 178 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Texas State can win

  1. Home court: Texas State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. History: Texas State won 4 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  3. Strength: Texas State rank 68th of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (33.9%).
  4. Strength: Texas State rank 72nd of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (18.5).
  5. Team matchup: where Texas State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (72nd of 365) meets the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ball security (333rd), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, DJ Hall (Texas State: 15.6 pts, 7.7 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 13.6) has the edge on Sheldon Williams (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 11.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 9.2).
  7. Simulation: Texas State win 3,115 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Texas State may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Texas A&M-Corpus Christi about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Three-point shooting: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 122nd (35.0%), Texas State 270th (32.2%) of 365.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Texas State lose by 10 or more.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Texas A&M-Corpus Christi can push back. Their ball pressure (49th of 365) meets the Texas State ball security (306th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Texas State on paper, but Sheldon Williams (11.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 9.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi win 1,885 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

AMCC Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Every regular played last game.

TXST Texas State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

AMCCTXST
0-0Record0-0
-1.3 204Net rating-0.8 192
102.4 297Offensive rating105.6 238
103.7 70Defensive rating106.4 116
-0.3 241Strength of schedule-0.8 325
49.5% 270Effective FG%50.0% 238
50.1% 104Opponent eFG%52.0% 210
19.4 333Turnovers per 10018.6 306
31.7% 137Offensive rebound %33.9% 68
35.0% 1223-point %32.2% 270
66.9 283Pace68.1 222

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2020-12-152020-21Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 46 @ Texas State 51TXST
2020-11-282020-21Texas State 75 @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 63TXST
2018-12-052018-19Texas State 61 @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 55TXST
2017-11-292017-18Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 53 @ Texas State 66TXST
2016-11-212016-17Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73 @ Texas State 69AMCC

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

38%Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
62%Texas State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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