21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
ALCN

Alcorn State @ Ole Miss

College basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs SEC · · The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss

MISS
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MISSOle Miss Rebels
88% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMISS -12.8
Totaln/a148.5
Moneylinen/aALCN +722
MISS -722 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

MISS 81, ALCN 68Typical score
ALCN by 2 to MISS by 278 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Ole Miss can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Ole Miss about 5.9 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Ole Miss 184th (-0.3), Alcorn State 354th (-19.1) of 365.
  3. Home court: Ole Miss play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Ole Miss 23rd (14.0), Alcorn State 338th (19.6) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Ole Miss can take advantage. Their ball pressure (188th of 365) meets the Alcorn State ball security (338th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (217th of 365) meets the Alcorn State shooting defense (330th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Ole Miss. The closest: best player against best player, AJ Storr (Ole Miss: 15.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 9.9) is about even with Tycen McDaniels (Alcorn State: 12.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 9.2).
  7. Simulation: Ole Miss win 4,390 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Ole Miss may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Ole Miss lose by 2 or more.
  2. Weak spot: Ole Miss rank 285th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (67.4%).
  3. Weak spot: Ole Miss rank 253rd of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (28.3%).
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: Alcorn State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Ole Miss on paper, but Tycen McDaniels (12.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 9.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Alcorn State win 610 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

ALCN Alcorn State

Every regular played last game.

MISS Ole Miss

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

ALCNMISS
0-0Record0-0
-19.1 354Net rating-0.3 184
96.0 352Offensive rating109.2 151
115.1 324Defensive rating109.5 208
-0.6 301Strength of schedule+1.2 42
47.7% 319Effective FG%50.4% 217
55.0% 330Opponent eFG%50.5% 127
19.6 338Turnovers per 10014.0 23
26.9% 296Offensive rebound %28.3% 253
33.3% 2073-point %33.2% 220
69.7 137Pace69.5 144

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2025-12-292025-26Alcorn State 43 @ Ole Miss 79MISS
2022-11-072022-23Alcorn State 58 @ Ole Miss 73MISS
2010-12-302010-11Alcorn State 62 @ Ole Miss 100MISS

What if?

Slide to shift the expected margin and watch the chances move.

12%Alcorn State
88%Ole Miss

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat