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MTST

Montana State @ Colorado State

College basketball 2026-27 · Big Sky vs Sun Belt · · Moby Arena

CSU
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CSUColorado State Rams
65% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCSU -4.3
Totaln/a144.2
Moneylinen/aMTST +184
CSU -184 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

CSU 77, MTST 73Typical score
MTST by 10 to CSU by 188 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Colorado State can win

  1. Home court: Colorado State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Colorado State's offense (116.2 points per 100 possessions, 44th in Division I) meets a Montana State defense that ranks 172nd.
  3. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Colorado State 36th (0.30), Montana State 273rd (0.22) of 365.
  4. Strength of schedule: Colorado State 108th (+0.4), Montana State 231st (-0.3) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Colorado State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (12th of 365) meets the Montana State shooting defense (193rd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Colorado State, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Carey Booth (10.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 9.5) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Colorado State win 3,240 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Colorado State may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Montana State 53rd (14.7), Colorado State 295th (18.5) of 365.
  2. Montana State's offense (111.4 points per 100 possessions, 113th in Division I) meets a Colorado State defense that ranks 249th.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Colorado State lose by 10 or more.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Montana State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Montana State can push back. Their shooting efficiency (80th of 365) meets the Colorado State shooting defense (263rd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (237th of 365) meets the Colorado State ball security (295th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jed Miller (Montana State: 14.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 13.1) has the edge on Carey Booth (Colorado State: 10.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 9.5).
  7. Upset odds: Montana State win 1,760 of 5,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

MTST Montana State

Every regular played last game.

CSU Colorado State

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

MTSTCSU
0-0Record0-0
+3.1 123Net rating+5.1 95
111.4 113Offensive rating116.2 44
108.2 172Defensive rating111.1 249
-0.3 231Strength of schedule+0.4 108
53.6% 80Effective FG%57.5% 12
51.7% 193Opponent eFG%52.9% 263
14.7 53Turnovers per 10018.5 295
27.0% 291Offensive rebound %30.0% 198
36.1% 523-point %38.6% 9
67.9 232Pace64.4 354

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2018-11-142018-19Montana State 77 @ Colorado State 81CSU

What if?

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35%Montana State
65%Colorado State

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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