Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | USC -5.4 |
| Total | n/a | 154.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MILW +223 USC -223 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
5,000 simulated games
Advantages Why USC can win
- Home court: USC play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- USC's offense (107.5 points per 100 possessions, 198th in Division I) meets a Milwaukee defense that ranks 333rd.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): USC 191st (-0.8), Milwaukee 278th (-7.6) of 365.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): USC 19th (0.32), Milwaukee 293rd (0.22) of 365.
- Team matchup: where USC can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (225th of 365) meets the Milwaukee shooting defense (340th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Rodney Rice (USC: 20.3 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.0 ast, Game Score 15.4) has the edge on Danilo Jovanovich (Milwaukee: 12.4 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 11.7).
- Simulation: USC win 3,450 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why USC may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Milwaukee 81st (15.2), USC 228th (17.4) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations USC lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Milwaukee 121st (70.8%), USC 269th (67.8%) of 365.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Milwaukee in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Milwaukee can push back. Their offensive rebounding (88th of 365) meets the USC defensive rebounding (269th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean USC on paper, but Danilo Jovanovich (12.4 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 11.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Milwaukee win 1,550 of 5,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Still out?
Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.
MILW Milwaukee
Every regular played last game.
USC USC
Every regular played last game.
Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| MILW | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -7.6 278 | Net rating | -0.8 191 |
| 108.1 181 | Offensive rating | 107.5 198 |
| 115.7 333 | Defensive rating | 108.3 173 |
| +0.2 126 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 60 |
| 49.9% 242 | Effective FG% | 50.4% 225 |
| 55.5% 340 | Opponent eFG% | 49.7% 89 |
| 15.2 81 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.4 228 |
| 33.0% 88 | Offensive rebound % | 32.4% 113 |
| 32.3% 265 | 3-point % | 31.7% 298 |
| 69.1 173 | Pace | 72.4 25 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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