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NKU

Northern Kentucky @ South Dakota

NCAAB · · Sanford Coyote Sports Center

SDAK

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
NKUNorthern Kentucky Norse
56% to win
ModelNKU 56%SDAK 44%
MarketNKU 55%SDAK 45%

Within 1 point of the market. Not a promise: a 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNKU -1.5Same
Total159.5Same
MoneylineNKU -135
SDAK +114		NKU -126
SDAK +126 fair

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
SDAK 79, NKU 81
8 in 10 games
NKU by 16 to SDAK by 12
SDAK covers +1.5
48%
Over 159.5
52%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Line movement

Logged : Northern Kentucky by 1.5, total 159.5.

Advantages Why Northern Kentucky can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Northern Kentucky about 5.5 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Northern Kentucky's offense (113.3 points per 100 possessions, 80th in Division I) meets a South Dakota defense that ranks 280th.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Northern Kentucky 121st (+3.4), South Dakota 254th (-5.1) of 365.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Northern Kentucky in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Northern Kentucky can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (91st of 365) meets the South Dakota shooting defense (317th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (84th of 365) meets the South Dakota ball security (170th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Northern Kentucky. The closest: at forward, Donovan Rakotonanahary (Northern Kentucky: 2.9 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.4 ast, Game Score 3.1; filling in for Tae Dozier, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) is about even with Ethan Kizer (South Dakota: 4.0 pts, 1.6 reb, 0.2 ast, Game Score 2.4; filling in for Jordan Crawford, doubtful, not on the team's current roster).
  7. The betting market agrees: Northern Kentucky 55% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why Northern Kentucky may not

  1. Home court: South Dakota play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Northern Kentucky lose by 12 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Northern Kentucky rank 299th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (53.9%).
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): South Dakota 7th (0.34), Northern Kentucky 136th (0.27) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where South Dakota can push back. Their shooting efficiency (239th of 365) meets the Northern Kentucky shooting defense (299th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Vince Buzelis (South Dakota: 7.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 6.0; filling in for Cameron Fens, doubtful, not on the team's current roster) has the edge on Ethan Elliott (Northern Kentucky: 5.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 4.7; filling in for Kael Robinson, doubtful, not on the team's current roster).
  7. Upset odds: South Dakota win 2,215 of 5,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

NKU Northern Kentucky

  • DoubtfulDan Gherezghernot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulKael Robinsonnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulShawn Nelsonnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulTae Doziernot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

SDAK South Dakota

  • DoubtfulCameron Fensnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulEvan Andersonnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulJordan Crawfordnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulPorter Ihnennot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulSilas Bennionnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
  • DoubtfulUzziah Buntynnot on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

NKUSDAK
1-0Record0-0
+3.4 121Net rating-5.1 254
113.3 80Offensive rating107.4 198
109.9 220Defensive rating112.5 280
-0.5 233Strength of schedule-1.5 335
53.2% 91Effective FG%49.9% 239
53.9% 299Opponent eFG%54.5% 317
16.4 159Turnovers per 10016.6 170
32.1% 119Offensive rebound %28.7% 243
33.3% 2123-point %32.3% 261
71.5 53Pace72.6 23

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Northern Kentucky56%
44%South Dakota

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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