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WIU

Western Illinois @ Valparaiso

College basketball 2026-27 · Ohio Valley vs Missouri Valley · · Athletics-Recreation Center

VAL
Rankings and standings

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
VALValparaiso Beacons
87% to win
Model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

Not a promise: a 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetVAL -11.8
Totaln/a144
Moneylinen/aWIU +679
VAL -679 fair

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

5,000 simulated games

VAL 81, WIU 69Typical score
WIU by 2 to VAL by 268 in 10 games
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Valparaiso can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Valparaiso about 3.4 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Valparaiso in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Valparaiso 199th (-1.0), Western Illinois 359th (-22.6) of 365.
  4. Home court: Valparaiso play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  5. Team matchup: where Valparaiso can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (110th of 365) meets the Western Illinois defensive rebounding (333rd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (160th of 365) meets the Western Illinois ball security (236th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Valparaiso. The closest: best player against best player, JT Pettigrew (Valparaiso: 12.5 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 8.9) is about even with Lucas Lorenzen (Western Illinois: 14.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 8.3).
  7. Simulation: Valparaiso win 4,360 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Valparaiso may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Valparaiso lose by 2 or more.
  2. Weak spot: Valparaiso rank 321st of 365 in effective shooting (eFG%) (47.6%).
  3. Weak spot: Valparaiso rank 263rd of 365 in points per game (71.2).
  4. Weak spot: Valparaiso rank 251st of 365 in strength of schedule (-0.4).
  5. Team matchup: Western Illinois have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Valparaiso on paper, but Lucas Lorenzen (14.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 8.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Western Illinois win 640 of 5,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Still out?

Regulars who sat out each team's last game. We count them as likely out.

WIU Western Illinois

Every regular played last game.

VAL Valparaiso

Every regular played last game.

Also checked (ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

WIUVAL
0-0Record0-0
-22.6 359Net rating-1.0 199
93.5 358Offensive rating105.6 236
116.1 337Defensive rating106.6 121
-0.4 254Strength of schedule-0.4 251
44.5% 360Effective FG%47.6% 321
54.2% 303Opponent eFG%50.5% 130
17.5 236Turnovers per 10015.7 115
27.0% 292Offensive rebound %32.5% 110
30.9% 3213-point %33.9% 179
67.6 245Pace67.4 257

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2023-11-212023-24Western Illinois 66 @ Valparaiso 73VAL

What if?

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13%Western Illinois
87%Valparaiso

Our number.

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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