Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | AUB -10.5 | Same |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.6 |
| Moneyline | ARK +300 AUB -380 | ARK +313 AUB -313 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Auburn by 10.5, total 50.5.
Your pick
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What changed
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Our number.
Advantages Why Auburn can win
- Elo rating: worth about 4.3 points to Auburn in our ratings.
- Home field: Auburn play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 1.3 points to Auburn in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Auburn can take advantage. Their running game (36th of 138) meets the Arkansas run defense (105th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Keshaun Singleton (Auburn: 56 receiving yards a game, 1 TD) has the edge on Antonio Jordan (Arkansas: 26, 0 TD; filling in for Chris Marshall, missed the last game), facing the Arkansas pass defense (129th of 138); off the edge, Elijah Melendez (Auburn: 4 sacks) has the edge on Quincy Rhodes Jr. (Arkansas: 2), facing the Arkansas pass protection (53rd of 138).
- Simulation: Auburn win 7,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Auburn 76% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Auburn may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Arkansas -7.0, Auburn -16.0.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Arkansas rank 53rd (4.9%), Auburn 128th (9.9%) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Auburn lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Auburn rank 129th of 138 in passing, yards per dropback (5.3).
- Team matchup: Arkansas have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, KJ Jackson (Arkansas: 6.9 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on Byrum Brown (Auburn: 6.5, 9 TD, 7 INT).
- Upset odds: Arkansas win 2,420 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ARK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 19.6 125 | Points per game | 24.1 93 |
| 27.6 101 | Points allowed | 26.8 94 |
| 5.0 132 | Yards per play | 5.4 119 |
| 6.9 125 | Yards per play allowed | 6.0 84 |
| +0.0 73 | Interception margin/game | +0.2 42 |
| 4.2% 113 | Sacks per dropback | 5.4% 81 |
| 1461 77 | Elo rating | 1609 47 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | 2025 Wk 9 | Auburn 33 @ Arkansas 24 | AUB |
| 2024-09-21 | 2024 Wk 4 | Arkansas 24 @ Auburn 14 | ARK |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023 Wk 11 | Auburn 48 @ Arkansas 10 | AUB |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Wk 9 | Arkansas 41 @ Auburn 27 | ARK |
| 2021-10-16 | 2021 Wk 7 | Auburn 38 @ Arkansas 23 | AUB |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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