Game day
KickoffThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | FLA -6.5 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.7 |
| Moneyline | OU +170 FLA -205 | OU +209 FLA -209 fair |
Line: , sportsbook consensus. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Line movement
Logged : Florida by 6.5, total 46.5.
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Florida can win
- Home field: Florida play at home, worth about 3 points in college football.
- Travel: Oklahoma come about 1,543 km (958 miles) for this one.
- Point differential per game: Florida rank 54th (+7.5), Oklahoma 84th (+1.2) of 138 FBS teams.
- Team matchup: where Florida can take advantage. Their pass rush (15th of 138) meets the Oklahoma pass protection (105th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Jadan Baugh (Florida: 97 rushing yards a game, 5.3 a carry) has the edge on Lloyd Avant (Oklahoma: 43, 4.4), facing the Oklahoma run defense (57th of 138); at quarterback, Aaron Philo (Florida: 9.5 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 5 INT) has the edge on John Mateer (Oklahoma: 8.2, 12 TD, 6 INT).
- Simulation: Florida win 6,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Florida 65% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Florida may not
- Elo rating: worth about 2.8 points to Oklahoma in our ratings.
- Efficiency (yards per play): worth about 2.0 points to Oklahoma in our ratings.
- Interception margin per game: Oklahoma rank 42nd (+0.2), Florida 116th (-0.5) of 138 FBS teams.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Florida lose by 13 or more.
- Team matchup: where Oklahoma can push back. Their pass rush (6th of 138) meets the Florida pass protection (44th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Isaiah Sategna (Oklahoma: 74 receiving yards a game, 0 TD) has the edge on Dallas Wilson (Florida: 52, 0 TD), facing the Florida pass defense (91st of 138).
- Upset odds: Oklahoma win 3,240 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| OU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 22.0 108 | Points per game | 35.6 23 |
| 20.8 38 | Points allowed | 28.1 103 |
| 5.6 108 | Yards per play | 6.2 62 |
| 5.4 40 | Yards per play allowed | 6.3 97 |
| +0.2 42 | Interception margin/game | -0.5 116 |
| 10.0% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 8.8% 15 |
| 1673 37 | Elo rating | 1616 45 |
Small numbers are ranks among 138 FBS teams (1 = best). Elo is CollegeFootballData's rating, updated after every game.
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2004.
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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